Friday, March 26, 2010

Some thoughts on rebuilding the broken Maldives

This country is in serious trouble. It’s a broken nation, to say the least. Economist, Paul Collier, in his TED talk “New Rules for rebuilding a broken nation” offers some serious advice that the leader of a broken nation like the Maldives could use.

Paul Collier makes it very easy to see what our small country under President Nasheed is doing wrong.

Firstly, we prioritized politics instead of security and economics. Our experience over the past 15 months have shown that an election doesn’t produce an “accountable and a legitimate government”. What it produced for us was a rather murky win for MDP coalition and a humiliating loss for DRP. The result is disastrous. An unreconciled pugnacious DRP is on the verge of taking this country to the brink of a civil war. Estranged coalition partners are acrimoniously bickering over MDP’s betrayal to them. So, from the standpoint of most political parties this has become a bitter zero-sum game - we can only go up if we bring those guys down!

Secondly, our government, both during Gayoom’s last few years and now, is focused on seizing ad hoc short-term opportunities and do-good projects with the help of unprincipled politicians (they are ubiquitous - you can’t stretch a leg without poking one in the ass ;-) . The result is an unsustainably large fiscal deficit and overall bad economic policy. Instead of focusing on front-loading economic reforms and creating an inclusion agenda on the political front our meager resources are being spent on doing-nothing commissions and frivolous political posts to fight the ghosts of Gayoom era.

Thirdly, Nasheed’s Government seems to be doing very little to address what Paul Collier calls “the three critical things” in a post-conflict situation: creating jobs, improvement of basic services especially health and providing a clean government. Government did ‘create’ jobs, in fact hundreds of jobs - not for the ordinary men and women but as rewards for activists and political cronies. Health services? Well, I only hear from my wife’s doctor friends that they are using normal thread to tie the umbilical cords of newborns at IGMH. As for the issue of ‘clean government’ my dubiety is fuelled by what a highly influential friend of mine told me a few months ago - ‘mi fas aharu nimey iru aharumen dhemigannaanan’. With an attitude like that among senior officials I don’t see our government going too far with creating a ‘clean government’.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Growing Githeyomirus and Building Flats

Growing githeyoirus? Here’s how you do it: put some soil into a pot, add a bit of cow dung, plant a few seeds and just water the pot everyday to see lots of red fiery ‘githeyomirus’ growing on your little plant in just under three months.

I’ve always thought growing githeyomirus was as simple as that; but that was only until I decided to give it a try. I planted seeds, watered the little plants, added not just cow dung but lots of different fertilizers. But the plants simply refused to grow. Most plants withered and died before they grew six inches tall.

What went wrong? Well, being the typical jack-of-all-trade Maldivian that I am, I just thought I knew everything there is to know about growing githeyomirus . What most of our type i.e., the jack-of-all-trade Maldivians don’t often realize is that most things in life are easier said than done.

The problem with us is this: we Maldivians know - we simply know too much about too many things.

Now, building flats, anyone?

Upon taking the oath of office Nasheed must have sought the advice of one of his brilliant jack-of-all-trade advisors on how to build flats in our islands. I bet the answer would have been very much like this: Sir, here’s how you do it - 1. Get finance. 2. Get an architect to design the flats. 3. Get a contractor to build. It’s so simple. Play House Disney’s Oso the Special Agent stuffed bear’s 3 special steps even seem more complicated than this. ;-)

22nd December 2008: one of President Nasheed’s I-know-how-to-build-flats ministers, brimming with confidence, went on TV to say that work on 5,000 flats would begin early 2009 and discussions with Chinese Government on the construction of 25,000 houses are progressing.

Fifteen months have passed since the announcement. Any hope I had of becoming a githeyomirus farmer has long dissipated. The 10,000 flats and the 25,000 houses have long been buried along with so many other phantom projects pitched continuously at our unsuspecting. President Nasheed, in the meantime, earned the title ‘flat dhonbe’ from his people who continue to live their miserable lives harvesting rainwater in mosquito-infested polyethylene tanks and defecating on public beaches and ‘four-gear’ latrines.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Maldives’ Freakonomics: Lesson One - ‘Hakuru’ Business

After I wrote a blog post on how to make loads of money in the Maldives, someone asked me if the ‘hakuru’ pushers really do make that kind of money and how and why are people lured into the business.

Well, the IRR of over 7000% and NPV of Rf44million was no joke. And a gross annual income of Rf8million isn’t unrealistic if you start with a seed capital of, say, Rf100,000. Just think about this - for someone to have Rf5 million cash on him at any given point in time his annual income has to be, even by the most modest reckoning, at least Rf50million. So, my estimates were in fact very prudent. The numbers were worked out based on very prudent and realistic assumptions.

Now, for the question – do all of them make that kind of money? Well, ‘Hakuru’ business is no different from any other capitalist enterprise. So, to make really big bucks from it you have to be at the top of the pyramid. The average foot soldier ‘partey’ probably makes very little money - perhaps just enough for his daily fix.
Then, why are so many people in the business? That’s because our country offers a very conducive environment for ‘Hakuru’ businesses to thrive. To many young people ‘hakuru’ offers not only an escape but a shortcut to great wealth and power with relatively little risk.

Ok, they are not making money. So, what’s their motivation?

Here’s a profile of two ‘partey’ kids I know. Makmoor and Maumoor, both in their late teens, are two out of eight siblings. Their mother, father, 8 siblings and a few other relatives lived all their life in two match box sized slum-like rooms located right in the heart of ‘Bah’lha’ territory in Male. The family, forced to live mostly on the generosity of their distant relatives ever since their father died of heart failure a few years ago, have been trying to eke out their existence any way they could. Both kids dropped out of school before they reached grade 8. So, the best job they thought they had access to was provided by highly visible, incredibly lucrative neighbourhood ‘Bah’lha gang’. The kids grew up marvelling at the glory and power of Bah’lha gang’s boss ‘Addey’ and his Lexus sports car. Addey has everything they could ever dream of – he’s cool; he has money, power, sex and glory! He is their role model. They know all too well that if they are to make it to the top someday money, power, sex and glory will all be theirs too. Risks? No worries. Being convicted 7 times in Maldives does absolutely no harm to the glory and power of a ‘boss’.

The ‘partey’ kids aren’t very different from the rest of the kids on the streets of Male. The typical twenty-something GRO at Sonevafushi would probably be dreaming of becoming a Sonu Shivdesani one day or making it all the way to the top. Likewise, Makmoor and Maumoor, having grown up in abject poverty and being denuded of whatever little moral values engrained in them – thanks to their preadolescent exposure to ‘hakuru’ fuelled highs - are only trying to climb their way to the top of the capitalist enterprise they know.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

How to make loads of money in the Maldives

Today, I have a little research in freakonomics. After a friend of mine recently told me how he could quadruple Rf 3,000 in 2 days I became a little curious on the profitability of certain businesses in Maldives. It’s no surprise. If you are looking for a get-rich-quick business here are the two most promising business ideas.

Number 1: Start a ‘Hakuru’ Business

Initial Investment: Rf 100,000 (you can start with as little as Rf1000)

Internal Rate of Return: 7014%; Net Present Value: 44,482,281
(Based on a 5 year cash flow - 50% annual growth of sales, 10% discount rate)

Risk Profile: Low to Moderate i.e. if you play your cards right.

Qualification: Any unemployed, half-literate, wannabe rags-to-riches can do this.
Entrepreneurial skills: Ability to form and control a ‘gang’. A few rules apply if you want to become filthy rich in this. Remember Chika? A few tips you could use are: look good, be smart, tough, ruthless and shrewd, but not tempting to arrest. And know how to motivate the foot soldier ‘parteys’ below you and manipulate your political contacts.

Expenses
Cost of Goods 600000
Partey distribution network cost 180000
Cost of 'partey' fighters, weapons & protection money 420000
Total Annual Variable Costs 1200000

Income
Drug sales 7,200,000
extortion & mercenary income from politicians 960,000
Gross Annual Income (1st Yr) 8,160,000


Number 2: Become a ‘Membaru’

Initial Investment: Rf 500,000

Internal Rate of Return: 196%; Net Present Value: Rf 4,071,429
(Based on a 5 year cash flow; 10% discount rate)

Qualification: 5th grade education would suffice.

Risk Profile: Totally Risk Free. Once you get there you are invincible. Infallible. You get a Carte blanche for everything. You can sell votes, party hop and do anything you want.

Entrepreneurial skills: Must be an inherently talented rabble-rouser, a born firebrand. Must be able to stand on podiums of political rallies and shout out a non-stop 30 minute miscellany of the most unimaginably nonsensical rhetoric, absolutely devoid of any intelligence.

Expenses
Office rental & staffing costs 180000
Beys-sitee, 'gifts' to constituency 120000
Total Expenses 300000

Income
“Membaru” salary 780,000
Other income (selling votes, wheeling and dealing) 480,000
Gross Annual Income 1,260,000

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Islam, the army and everything else is costly in Maldives. Here’s why

Islam is a costly affair. So is the army. And so are the other institutions. Everything in this country is costly. Expensive. Obscenely expensive, to say the least.

Under Gayoom we had a huge problem: almost one in every five adult was a civil servant; we never bothered to pay the real cost of our electricity, health care, water etc; five out every hundred Rufiyaa we earned went to support our military (I’ve tried but haven’t figured out why we continue to do so). And with no taxation the meagre Government revenue was far too inadequate to finance our expenses. So, we found the easy way. We borrowed. Every time we had a shortfall we simply borrowed our way out of it without ever attempting to find a permanent cure to our prolonged illness.

We lived beyond our means back then. And 15 months after Nasheed was sworn in amidst much euphoria of change, we are still living way beyond our means. Our government was and still is probably the biggest spender in the world in relation to the size of the economy.

Well, the cost of providing services and maintaining the bureaucracy of a government to 300 thousand people dispersed on 195 tiny islands not much bigger than football pitches is an innately costly affair. There’s absolutely no doubt about that.

But here’s a question we need to think about: can a country the size and nature of Maldives run a government with less money? Yes, indeed. If other microstates like Mauritius, Cape Verde and Aruba are able to run with government expenditures of only around a third of their GDP, there’s little reason to believe we can’t do the same.

Bringing the much-needed structural changes was and still is the key issue. But sadly, these changes were and still are simply delayed because they are too painful to the people at the helm of our affairs.

Disproportionately large public institutions were created and sustained, largely with borrowed money, for the political expediency of a few individuals. State and deputy ministers, political appointees, brigadier generals and so forth are created not based on any real need but simply to camouflage trickery.

It’s easy to blame it on the 300 thousand people and 195 tiny islands. But the fact of the matter is this: no other microstate maintains 77parliamentarians, 54 state ministers, 75 deputy ministers, a countless number of other political appointees, over 29 thousand civil servants and thousands of military personnel –all paid through the tax payer’s nose. The world’s richest country, a microstate, incidentally, is run by a prime minister, his deputy, 3 ministers and 5 alternate ministers!

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Army: another costly affair in the Maldives!

Here’s another white elephant that’s going to get your knickers in a twist.

5 to 8 laari out of every rufiyaa we earn is spent on our Defence Ministry. It’s little wonder some estimates place the Maldives next only to Israel in terms of military spending as a percentage of GDP.

Its been over a year since Gayoom’s government, often alleged by opponents to be a police state, was voted out in the first multiparty elections that catapulted Nasheed, the most vociferous advocate of human rights and democracy this country ever produced, to the country’s highest office.

I for one believed the end of ‘the police state’ and heralding of democracy would inevitably ease military spending freeing up resources for the more urgent priorities.

My optimism is short-lived. The first democratically elected Government of Maldives spent a staggering Rf 613million, up Rf41million from Gayoom’s final year, during its first year. And over the medium term the trend is all set to continue unabated.

On Wikipedia’s list of countries by military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, the Maldives placed on the 15th seems to be somewhat of an oddity. No one would have raised an eyebrow if the Maldives is an oil rich Arab state or we had a history of armed conflicts.

Now, for the biggest and the most controversial question: does a country the size and nature of Maldives need to spend such vast sums of money on maintaining this disproportionately large army to thwart a make-believe threat?

The world’s richest country Liechtenstein, with a per capita income a whopping 30 times more than ours, has no armed forces. Mauritius with a population four times that of the Maldives and a per capita income of over USD 12thousand doesn’t have one either. Andorra, Costa Rica, Dominica, Marshall islands, Monaco, Panama, St Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, Samoa, Solomon islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu are all independent states that, to my reckoning, aren’t very different from the Maldives that are managing the affairs of their statehood with no standing army.

Finally, here’s the saddest part of the story. Our finance minister embroiled in a frivolous conspiracy theory about our CSC seems to be totally oblivious to this colossal white elephant we are keeping mostly to attend to rather mundane affairs of statehood such as, ahem, keeping rodent infestations at bay. ;-)

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Islam: A costly affair in the Maldives

Islamic Affairs Ministry has a budget of Rf 211million – that’s twice as much as we are spending on tourism, information and arts and a whopping 14 times more than what we are spending on economic development!

How on earth is the Islamic Ministry spending all the money? Rf 160million on recurrent expenditures and 51million on capital expenditure, says the Ministry’s budget.

The Public Sector Investment Programme for 2010 shows Government plans spend Rf50million to build mosques in some 36 different locations in the country. Here’s an example of some islands that are going to get brand new mosques in 2010.

The 700 odd residents of Dh. Badidhoo are getting a mosque at a cost of Rf1.2million.

R. Fainu, home to some 300 odd people are getting a mosque valued at Rf1.7million.

R. Dhuvaafaru, home to around 2000 people is getting 2 mosques – one that costs Rf0.58million and another at Rf 4.4 million.

Who prays in these mosques? Men, to be more precise, men too old to travel to resorts or Male for work. How about women? They pray at home.

Now, the question of cost. I know how easily I could be labelled as ‘an atheist, gay, Jewish, Christian missionary’ for saying this. But lets think about the Fainu mosque case: building a mosque at a cost of Rf1.7 million in Fainu is like giving Rf30,000 to every adult male in the island to pray. It simply defies all my logic. I simply cannot understand the rationale of our policy makers to ‘invest’ Rf 50million of mostly borrowed money to build fancy mosques in small island communities the harsh demographic and geographical realities of which often compel its residents to travel to a neighbouring island for the even most common tablet of painkillers.

I’ve always been told Prophet's mosque in Madinah was constructed entirely from date palm – palm tree trunk pillars and palm fronds roof, no minaret and no dome. Islam, as I have understood all my life, is all for virtues like modesty and simplicity.

This got me seriously baffled. Utterly confused. Confused as to the need of a small island community that defecate into holes dug, as-and-when-nature-calls, on public beaches and ‘four-gear’ latrines to pray in a mosque that has a shining dome, a tall minaret and intricate wood carvings of Quranic verses on the walls. It looks like Islam indeed is an expensive affair in this country.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Looking for info on Govt’s websites

This morning while having a chat with a friend I became a little curious on the corporate entities in which our Government holds shares. After a bit of googling which proved to be all abortive, I thought our Finance Ministry’s website would be the best place to start with. So I typed the all too familiar www.finance.gov.mv on my keyboard and got in to the Ministry’s website.

On the front page are what appear to be a hodgepodge of links to some downloads. The first one entitled “2010 Budget aai behey Circular” took me to an announcement on the lease of properties owned by the Government. The second one with a title “Galolhu Bolha Dhadu 12 No.Fihaara Kuyah Dhinun” as the title says was about leasing a shop lot owned by the Government at Galolhu stadium. This is followed by an umpteen number of unsorted ad-hoc announcements on similar matters I presume are related to providing “the country with a sound macroeconomic framework that leads to sustained growth, with the use of sustainable, non-inflationary fiscal policy” – the noble ‘mission’ of Finance Ministry.

I tried the heading “affiliated institutes” which, for some strange reason known only to the webmaster, listed only MMA, Customs, DIR, BML, HDFC, TEB, PEMEB. HDFC and BML can’t possibly be the only corporate entities in which Government of Maldives has stakes. But then when I saw the last tab titled ‘PEMEB’ – an acronym that incidentally rings a bell of nostalgia of my days at MMA ;-) - I thought I finally found the information I was looking for. Alas, the link is dead!

Then I decided to try my luck with the sitemap to see if that would ease my navigation through the seemingly indomitable labyrinth. Tough luck, again. Its another dead link!

My curiosity with the dead links took me to a tab titled “Minister’s Bureau” that appear to have become extinct perhaps not too long after the last archaeopteryx flew the Earth. Then, I finally noticed the little ‘FEEDBACK’ tab on which I wrote a little note about my problem.

My search eventually took me to a PDF document entitled “Government Offices and Independent Institutions” on the website of the President’s Office. But that was of no help either.

Finally, after almost 45 minutes of googling, navigating through websites of several Government offices and writing small notes that would perhaps only be ‘read’ by BOTs, I’m still left clueless as to how many corporate entities are there in which the Government of my country holds stakes.

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Back to blogosphere

The blogger in me has hibernated for over nine months now. Visitors to this blog and my friends have at times questioned me about my long absence. For those of you out there who want to know, here’s what I have to say.

Firstly, I got busy preparing for my daughter Anna’s arrival.

Secondly, I felt that I was making unnecessary enemies. We have a culture in which all criticisms are taken as personal attacks. Even the slightest criticism could precipitate a totally unwarranted flurry of rabid animosity on you.

Thirdly, I guess I just got sick and tired of crying wolf all the time. Visitors to this blog were accusing me of being too cynical in my outlook.

Then, I thought of taking a break. I thought of just waiting for something positive to happen so that I could write a nice and happy blog post about it. So I went into hibernation at the end of April 2009.

After two months or so I had a look at the major events on the international front to see if there was anything positive I could write about. Many things of course did happen during my absence. But there was nothing that could even remotely be described as positive - H1N1 assumed pandemic status; Ahmedinejad got re-elected in Iran; Air France flight from Rio to Paris crashed killing all 228 people on board; the legendary King of Pop died; and Chinese authorities clamped down on ethnic Uyghurs. :-(

On the domestic front things were going from bad to worse. Amidst the acrimonious political bickering on both sides of the political divide there was little the few ‘good’ elements in the country could do to remedy an economic, social and political situation that had spiralled out of control. And finally, the day my country bloated its Majlis from 48 rabblerousing ‘ikhlastheri’ members to 77, I buried whatever remains of my hope to write a blog post on anything positive.

Fast forward nine months, my little bundle of joy is six months old and it dawned upon me just yesterday that my interest in blogging is still very much alive. So, I decided that it’s time to make a comeback to the blogosphere :-)

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Fiscal Discipline - Ali Hashim's predicament

A finance minister is perhaps the last person to win a popularity contest during a recession. When Alistair Darling proposed his budget it was derided by media as a "fantasy Budget". A writer on the Economist dubbed the budget as “a dishonest piece of pre-election politicking”. Meanwhile, in our small make-believe microcosm of the UK, our finance chief Ali Hashim is faced with a similar predicament. His only consolation is that there are no malicious financial journalists to deride him in his country. The few so-called professional journalists in the country have long given up on any interest to graze in their country’s arid financial landscape - thanks to the greener pastures offered by a highly polarized political landscape.

Ali Hashim’s eye-watering Rf 12.6 billion budget didn’t come as a surprise to me. Big budget numbers have become very much the norm for us. Over the last few years our government has in fact been the biggest spender in the world in relation to the size of the economy. The highest spending governments like that of Cuba, by comparison, have government expenditures at around 80 percent of their GDP.

Is Ali Hashim to be blamed? It appears that he has largely done what he could - trying to trim current and capital expenditures which were largely vestiges of the previous regime. It is the structural problems in the public sector, the disproportionately large civil service, low budget revenues and inadequate tax receipts that engendered the tradition of “fantasy budgets”, in the Maldives. The budget, particularly the revenue projection, as described by G.A Member Jabir, is a “fantasy”. This fantasy, quite ironically is spawned by nothing but the greed and the insatiable demands of powerful political figures in the parliament and government. These are the people that have, for political expediency, shut their eyes to the financial black hole this country is headed to. The Finance Ministers, at least the last three of them, were left with no option but to curry favour to their demands. And much to the amusement of their political masters, each one of these finance ministers soon morphed into someone akin to a Paris-Hilton-inspired wastrel, armed with a credit card.

Another question that begs to be asked is why President Nasheed’s government is unable to break this tradition of “fantasy budgets”? The simple answer to this complicated question is that while most of the powerful figures within the government view any spending cuts as something tantamount to political masochism, the opposition MP’s are crying foul over the budget not “adequately addressing” the concerns of their electorate. Amidst the on-going political bickering and skullduggery ahead of the parliamentary elections, both the Government and opposition MPs seem to be united in humming the tune of spend, baby, spend!

I am no expert in public finance. But I don’t think it takes anything more than commonsense to figure out that if you keep on spending money you don’t have, you are invariably on a path to bankruptcy. Incidentally, a fellow blogger has highlighted some facts and raised interesting questions on the cost of our political reforms. Fiscal restraint and broadening the revenue base remain the only short-run macroeconomic policy variables that are available to Finance Minister Hashim. And given the desperate times, draconian measures are needed to address his Herculean task. A man entrusted with the task to introduce fiscal discipline to a country that has been so much used to there’s-no-tomorrow spending sprees would not be a popular man. The stakes are indeed high for Ali Hashim. The efficacy of his fiscal reforms and his very own survival now hinge on his ability to say no to the pig-headed men and women warming the all too important seats of the government, Majlis and the judiciary. The indications are that Ali Hashim has the nerves to flex his muscles to enforce fiscal discipline. The premature graying, after all, isn’t the only thing that Ali Hashim and Alistair Darling have in common. ;-)