Is there a billionaire in Maldives?

‘Billionaire Gasim Ibrahim’? I’ve come across this at least a dozen times over the last few years. Miadhu Daily is particularly fond of referring to Mr. Qasim Ibrahim as a billionaire. I’m not too sure if this is a satire on Mr. Qasim or someone is aiming for a bargain at inflating his ego. The words ‘millionaire’ and ‘billionaire’ have become a ubiquitous term in our Maldivian psyche and vocabulary in the recent past. I’ve seen a rise in this phenomenon particularly in the aftermath of the 2006-2007 resort-leasehold gambling game that saw the creation of a handful of overnight millionaires.

A millionaire or a billionaire, according to conventional thinking is someone who has a net worth of a million or a billion, measured in a major international currency such as the US Dollar or Euro. This definition unfortunately excludes, from the millionaire / billionaire club, wannabes who are eager to somehow do some clever math in Indonesian Rupiah to get into this elite club. (There goes my hope of ever claiming to be a billionaire!)

Now going back to the original question – is Mr. Qasim a billionaire? In the absence of tax returns or disclosure requirements this is difficult to ascertain with absolute certainty. But based on anecdotal evidence assuming that Mr. Gasim owns 10 resorts in Maldives, a few hotels overseas and shares in several local companies, and has liabilities of almost similar magnitudes, it is highly unlikely that Mr. Qasim’s net worth would even be USD200 million.

Another question that begs to be asked is - Is there a billionaire in Maldives? I still remember how I had a lengthy argument with a local businessman a few months ago when he said Mr. Champa Afeef will make it to the Forbes list in a year. For a while I thought my friend was joking. It was hard to believe that this fairly well-educated man in his forties, who has spent half his lifetime doing a sizable private business, was unable to have an appreciation of the arithmetics needed to figure out that an economy that’s entire value hovers around only a billion US dollars cannot possibly produce an individual billionaire. Do 300 feet-tall Sierra redwoods grow on our islands? Or has anyone ever spotted a 100 ton blue whale swimming in our lagoons? I, for one, would be happy to see the New Year 2009 produce a Maldivian billionaire, but the hard fact of the matter is that the size of our economy is infinitesimally small to give rise to a Warren Buffett or a Lakshmi Mittal. It is highly unlikely that even the combined net worth of Mr. Qasim, Mr. M.U Manik and Mr. Champa Afeef would tally a billion dollars!

Wish you a very Happy New Year!

Some Concerns on the Universal Pension Scheme

If my understanding of National Social Protection Agency’s interview to Haveeru is correct, 13000 people including former Ministers Karanka Ibrahim Rasheed and Umar Zahir will be drawing Rf2000 per month from NSPA in a month’s time.

It looks like the Government put forwarded this universal pension scheme as a means to provide a safety net for our burgeoning elderly population. Anyone could see the merits of a universal pension scheme as our early baby-boomers are already headed towards retirement. My concern with NSPA’s pension scheme is not because it includes ex-ministers, but because this scheme, in its present form as explained in NSPA’s interview, will most probably become unsustainable in the next five to ten years. And I’m also a wee bit skeptical as to how much of a free transfer of resources this country can afford from the current working population to the retired. Now don’t get me wrong – I’m all for any effort that would ensure a higher standard of living for all age-groups of people in this country.

In the absence of a proper mechanism to do a means testing, the pension will have to be made a universal state pension. With around 13,000 eligible people eligible today, the total cost outlay of this scheme to our taxpayers is a whopping Rf 300million annually. And what we sometimes quite conveniently forget is that unlike in most other countries where baby boomers were a post-war phenomenon, we had our baby-boom during the late 60s, 70s and early 80s. With our life expectancies reaching levels that are comparable even to that of the developed world, in another 20 years the baby-boomer will reach retirement and we will have over 38 thousand people eligible for this universal pension. And the cost of this scheme would then spiral out of control to Rf900 million annually. And lets not forget the financial burden our government already has on account of the non-contributory pension scheme that pays 50 percent of the basic monthly salary as an on-going pension after every 20 years of service, to all government employees.

While most of us appreciate NSPA’s efforts to provide a safety net for our seniors, it appears that without major overhauls to the pension schemes, in terms of the way we fund them, they would collapse in less than ten years. And to me, the most painful part of this is that once the decision has been made to provide a universal non-contributory pension without any means testing, the ‘political cost’ of attempting to overhaul the scheme would be fatal to any government.

If you are buying Euros in Male you need to know this

A friend traveling abroad gave me a call to say that he is buying Euro as no bank would sell him the 1,500 Dollars he needed today. It made me a little curious as to how our local banks could simply go on selling Euros at a time when the country has an acute shortage of hard currency. A few punches on the calculator will tell you how they do it. Banks in Male are selling Euro at Rf 18.13 which is actually a premium compared to the USD rate of 12.85. This is equivalent to paying Rf13.10 for a Dollar! Most people who happily buy Euros at this rate are somewhat beguiled into believing that they are avoiding a loss by not paying Rf13 or above for a Dollar. So, the next time you buy hard currency don’t buy Euros at this rate unless you have no problem with buying Dollars on the black-market for Rf13.10!

First 30 Days – A Summary of Achievements of the Government

It’s been just over a month since a new president was sworn into office in the living memory of over 80 percent of our people. The jubilation and euphoria is still very much alive. Thirty days in office is an important milestone both for President Nasheed and all Maldivians, regardless of the political affiliations. The Press and Publication’s Section of the President’s Office has published a document entitled ‘First 30 Days – A Summary of Achievements of the Government’ to mark the occasion. My friend who asked me to have a look at this document was utterly outraged and thought this is nothing but an affront to the President himself. And after having a cursory look at the document, I can’t find any reason to disagree with him. It is disheartening to see the capable new team at the President’s Office giving this rather premature opportunity for Mundhoodh to have the last laugh.

‘Vicks-Vaporub’ treatment for the Economy

Kasimbe’s biggest regret in life is that he didn’t agree to amputate his thumb a year ago, after what looked like an insect bite worsened to develop gangrene. The year long ‘Vicks-Vaporub - Balm’ treatment he took was to no avail. Gangrene formed and he opted, against Dr. Balakrishnan’s advice, not to do away with his thumb for the thought of having to live, for the rest of his life, without a thumb, was too painful to him. Now, a year later, he is leaving to Trivandrum to amputate his entire left arm in a desperate attempt to save his life.

Kasimbe isn’t alone in delaying painful decisions. That’s what we did as a country, under Gayoom, for 30 long years. We procrastinated, delayed any decision that looked painful. We knew our problems - we did not pay the real cost of our electricity, health care, fuel, and water etc; almost one in every five adult is a civil servant; five out every hundred Rufiyaa we earn goes to support our military. With no direct taxation the budget revenues were inadequate to finance the uncontrollable government expenses. We were living beyond our means. Every time we had a shortfall, we borrowed our way out of it without ever attempting to find a permanent cure to the problem. Our policy makers knew very well that this sort of ad-hoc and piecemeal policies only gave symptomatic treatment that provided a momentary relief from pain, rather than addressing the real problems. Addressing the real problems and bringing the much-needed structural changes to the economy were simply delayed because the people at the helm of our affairs found the changes to be too painful. So, we continued to treat our economy with ‘Vicks-Vaporub’, for a good 30 years and the result is…nothing but gangrene.

It’s been over a month since we closed Gayoom’s chapter. And now it looks like the looming dollar crisis is going to be the first real challenge to our new Government. I can understand why President Nasheed’s government wouldn’t want to face the inevitable devaluation, at least during his all important first 100 days in office but if we are counting on the USD100 million loan pledged by the Indian Government to save our Rufiyaa, that’s tantamount to applying ‘Vicks-Vaporub’ on Rufiyaa. The real ailment remains untreated – only to recur in another month or two.

The lost opportunity for a ‘paradigm shift’

How my friend Ali Farsighted, over a casual coffee, talked about the need for a ‘paradigm shift’ in Maldivian thinking is still fresh in my memory. That was a few weeks after the 26th Dec tsunami. I thought Ali was on the money in his thinking on his ‘paradigm shift’ in population consolidation. His contention was that the calamity had given our people a once in a lifetime opportunity to rethink the way only 300 thousand people are living on 195 islands which are suited to one thing only - a subsistence based, nomadic fishing community.

I also remember how another friend of mine, then working at Planning Ministry, distanced himself from the Government’s decision to develop R. Dhuvaafaru, when I asked him how the Ministry had selected the island as the new abode for the residents of Kadholhudhoo. Today, after 4 years, the island has been developed for its 4,000 inhabitants, at a cost of over Rf390 million – that’s a staggering hundred thousand rufiyaa per person. Another island destroyed by tsunami, Th. Vilufushi, has also been developed at whopping cost of 340million rufiyaa – that’s over Rf 130,000 per inhabitant for the 2,500 odd people who will ultimately call the island, home. Only two islands have set us over three-quarters of a billion rufiyaa behind. And there’s so much more to this. Now that our people ‘know’ what their ‘rights’ are, there are some 190 odd islands that would not shy away from going Maduvvaree’s way. After all, if people in Dhuvaafaru, Hulhumale, Vilufushi and Male can have safe infrastructures in their islands, there is no reason to believe that the Government cannot provide the same to Madduvvarians. The demands will be unstoppable. Decentralization and ‘local governments’ aren’t going to do the trick.

I must say, Ali was damn right. Tsunami was the only opportunity we had to convince Yahuya Average that he has no choice but to move away from his fishing village of less than 300 people if he wants his two sons and three daughters to complete Cambridge A levels and his grandmother Faathumafulhu to undergo the cataract surgery that she had required for years, without having to leave his home island. But now it looks like we have lost that opportunity forever. New Housing Minister has said on record that he doesn’t want too many Hulhumales. Housing Minister is right. Large scale dredging does irreversible damage to our coral islands. But if the plight of Yahuya Average’s fifth generation children are to be anything other than buying land to settle down alongside Dalits in Indian ghettos, we cant help but be fascinated by the seemingly utopian Bushry’s ‘safe island’.

Maldives – moving closer to end years of anti-Semitism?

What has Israel bashing got to do with defending Islam in Maldives? Quite a lot – at least to some local politicians. In this otherwise lethargic country some people could get really worked up when it comes to Israel and Jews. In fact, over the years, the politicians and Imams in our small country has honed and fine-tuned their skills in anti-Semitism to such an extent that Hitler himself would be turning in his graves. We even have a special home-grown Dhivehi language word, ‘i-yahoodi kan’ - is there an English equivalent? The closest that I can think of is the sleaziest form of trickery and chicanery. Views and opinions on Israel and Jews have been a make-or-break issue for politicians. Gayoom’s early political career, for instance, owes a great deal to a carefully nurtured Maldivian’s fear of Jews. Many believe it was Gayoom who was largely the architect of the about turn President Nasir took in the 70s after being the first country to recognize the state of Israel. Now, after 30 years, yet another aspiring politician Umar Naseer seems to be trying his luck on the same platform.

During Gayoom’s last few years, however, there were some signs of a détente - we co-sponsored the US resolution on holocaust remembrance in 2005; and in 2007 we co-sponsored another US- resolution condemning holocaust denial. Now our pragmatic foreign minister Dr. Shaheed who was accused by the likes of Umar Naseer to have clandestine links with U.S billionaire George Soros and Zionist organizations have gone one step further by saying that he would “not rule out engaging in diplomatic relations with Israel”.

What I as a Muslim cannot understand is why we so often talk about ‘Islamaphobia’ in the west while we ourselves are so much engrossed in such hatred towards the Jews. Is this about doing our bit to defend Islam? I have absolutely no clue, but the Prophet Mohamed that I’ve read about and come to know of did co-exist with Jews in 7th century Yathrib. And I’m sure our today’s ‘Kasautee-moms’, glued to the box 16 hours a day and those lanky Billabong-clad ‘parteys’ out on our streets couldn’t care less about a never-ending centuries old war that’s being waged half way around the world for reasons that they know nothing about. It looks like our hatred of Jews and anti-Semitism is nothing but just another political tool in the arsenal of a few pseudo-religious politicians aspiring to ride on a holier-than-thou kind of political platform.

Why aren’t investments coming to South Asia’s most business friendly country?

I was very happy when the World Bank’s ‘Doing Business Report 2006 and 2007’ report ranked the Maldives as the most business friendly country in South Asia. This coincided with the time Mohamed Jaleel was quoted by our media almost every other day, about the development of a USD300million transshipment port in Ihavandhippolhu, a USD 200million port city in Gulhifalhu and an integrated infrastructure project in Hulhumalé phase2. My happiness turned out to be somewhat short-lived. The promised investments did not come and the projects appear to have been shelved now. To make matters worse, funds have even dried up for most of the 50 or so resort islands that are currently in various stages of development. I cannot help asking why we are unable to attract FDI the way some small countries like Cyprus, Trinidad and Tobago, Mauritius, Malta are doing. If Nasheed’s government is serious about getting FDI, he needs to get his Minister Rasheed to quickly remove the bottlenecks and address some of the pressing problems in the area.

▫ Interference and corruption – government has previously mixed political objectives and influence with commercial and infrastructure projects (Ihavandhippolhu transshipment port, Gulhifalhu, Hulhumale phase 2, Hulhumale Ceylinco project etc). This gives wrong signals to investors who know that they need ‘influential business partners’ on their side if they want to stand a chance of winning a project or approval for a project. However, most investors with a good international standing would want to be judged on the basis of technical criteria rather than their political connections and knack for influence paddling. As for corruption, with Transparency International giving us a world ranking of 115 – way below countries like India and Srilanka, it’s a little… ahem…a paper bag, anyone?

▫ Inadequacy and ambiguity of legal framework –ambiguous and conflicting messages are given to potential investors, often as a result of vested interests of powerful figures within the government. Important pieces of legislation in areas such as intellectual property and instruments to deal with WTO’s TRIPs etc are non-existent. The lack of rules and regulations that unambiguously protects the interests of investors exacerbates the ambiguity and makes the operating parameters of the investment climate hazy. Can someone tell me the latest policy on EEZ fishing licenses, for instance?

▫ Unclear entry requirements and non-transparent operating conditions – Another major deterrent to attracting FDI is the lack of clarity in rules concerning entry and operation requirements and conditions in major sectors of the economy. For instance, over the recent years MMA has had a policy of licensing banks of international repute based on their ratings. But I’m not too sure how Moody’s would rank the Mauritius Commercial Bank, the most recent bank to set-up shop in the Maldives. Another example of how not to do things is the way someone (Gawd, I cowed again!) tried to get commission from each and every FDI initiative that ever crossed the Trade ministry’s door.

▫ Insufficient coordination – Foreign Investment Board and the FISB, instead of proactively seeking investments, are passive in their approach and only serve to rubber stamp projects approved at the very top. In addition, insufficient coordination among multiple govt agencies and the bitter ‘turf wars’ within government agencies, often owing to rather petty political squabbles and vested interests, continue to derail our efforts to attract FDI.

▫ Lack of expertise –FISB’s mandate and authorities are somewhat nebulous and the resources of the agency are too thinly spread. As a result there are serious shortfalls of institutional capacity and expertise necessary to promote and implement projects at the agency.

Enough of Human Rights and Political Reform! Where is the Economic Reform?

Maldives has become probably the first micro-state to have a Human Rights Ambassador. This would be seen by many as an indication of our intention to proactively promote and internationally advocate for human rights. After all, why else would a country the size of Maldives opt to have a human rights ambassador? Most micro and small states that I know of limit their engagement in the area of human rights to the domestic front. Championing human rights, I don’t think, would be seen by many to be within the gamut of foreign policy of a microstate.

Over the last few years, we have done a remarkably good job in the area of human rights. In fact I can’t think of any other microstate that made the kind of strides we made in this area in such a short span of time. On the domestic front we developed a well functioning Human Right Commission. Internationally, we acceded to most of the international conventions such as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the UN Convention against Torture, the Optional Protocol to the UN Convention against Torture, the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, the Optional Protocol to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women – just to name a few. We have also successfully completed the diffusion all the criticisms we faced in the aftermath of the 2003 jail shooting incident - kudos to Dr. Shaheed for what he did as Foreign Minister.

The bottom-line is, given the size of Maldives and its geopolitical significance, I believe we have put more than adequate resources in this area and we shouldn’t be spending any more of our meagre resources to venture into new areas in human rights. In fact we have been so much engrossed in human rights and political reforms that we have completely forgotten about other important areas such as economic reforms. Anymore resources and energy in this area is only going to further clog and dampen the much needed economic reforms.

Himeyningilaab is wrong about 50 years resort lease extension

Himeyn-ingilaab calls our Maldivian business community a group of outmoded thieves - a group of people that have run business evading taxes - shameless thieves committing acts of piracy! I have great admiration for the work Himeyn did during the run up to the election. But this time I’m totally clueless as to the basis for all this ignominious name calling and recrimination.

Sometimes to prove a point we become unreasonable and resort to baseless attacks. We forget to take stock of the actual ground realities. Is there any government, anywhere in the world, that is able to stay away from the influence of the powerful oligarchs? The businesses in the industrialized countries pay taxes to their governments, not because they are any more God-fearing, or have higher moral standards than we Maldivians do. They pay taxes only because their countries have the appropriate legislative and regulatory frameworks to compel them to do so. Even after having these systems in place for over a hundred years, most of them are always on the look out for any avenue that would give them legitimacy to pay even one less dollars in taxes. We in the Maldives haven’t been able to develop the legislative framework and the enforcement mechanism for taxes. So, I don’t see any way we can squarely put the blame on the business community for not paying or developing a tax regime. The government, business community, the civil society, the Rayyithun - all of us together are responsible for this.

As for the extension of resort leases, I don’t see much of a problem with that. On the contrary, I think, this is a must if we are to remain competitive both as a lucrative investment destination and as an attractive tourist destination. Let’s face the facts – we have to understand that we are far from being an attractive investment destination even by developing country standards. The only thing we need to do, while we work on the extension of the resort leases is to make sure that when we give the resort owners a deal, we give them a deal that’s fair to even to the most destitute single mother living in the most dilapidated household in the most remote island in the Maldives (sorry, just borrowing a phrase from Himeyn). The fairness of this deal could be ensured by increasing the lease rentals or by implementing a bed tax, a GST on tourism sales or a corporate profit tax. I recently read an article somewhere that says that over 80 out of the 89 odd resorts currently in operation, still have USD4000 or less as annual lease rentals when the going market rate at the more recent rounds of bidding are over USD20,000 per bed per year. These are the things that we need to be working on instead of vilifying our business community and calling them a bunch of unprincipled pirates filching money out of our destitute people. After all it is only natural that any profit-maximizing business should try and lay hands to every extra dollar possible.

Our government - the biggest spender in the world

Finance Minister Ali Hashim has determined our budget for the next year to be Rf13 billion. In spite of axing Rf9billion from the budget planned under Gayoom for 2009, our government is still the biggest spender in the world in relation to the size of the economy – even the highest spending governments like that of Iraq and Cuba have government expenditures at around 80 percent of their GDP.

While most of us fully understand the reasons why the new government, at least over the short term, is unable to make good on the pre-election promises to reduce government expenditure, I could not help doing a quick search on what the ideal size of government spending should be. Economist Gerald Scully’s research shows that government spending beyond the ‘optimum’ level of about 23 percent of GDP, generally results in government becoming a net drain on the economy. Empirical evidence shows that up to this ‘optimum’ level, every dollar government spends provides more than a dollar's worth of economic growth. I know it would be inappropriate to generalize this ‘optimum’ level to countries such as the Maldives. But if we are to go by Scully’s ‘optimum’ level of budget, our budget should be less than Rf300million –that’s only a fourth of the current budget. This is, ostensibly, a little too ambitions, but on close scrutiny, if countries like Mauritius, Cape Verde and Aruba are able to run their governments with only less than a third of their GDP, there is little reason to believe that we cant do the same. But given some of the structural and policy issues within the institutional and organizational structure of the government, and the pressing public finance issues below, this appear to be out of question, at least for the time being.

1. Low budget revenue and inadequate tax receipts - The revenue base is far too narrow and comprises mainly of import duties, tourism taxes, resort lease rents and profits from SoEs.
   

2. Wasteful public expenditures - Government expenditures, particularly the current expenditures have increased steadily over the years owing largely to our disproportionately large public sector.
   

3. Burgeoning deficits - Although the government has presented, over the years, what it calls ‘balanced budgets’ to the parliament, the budget deficits have ballooned to unsustainable levels, leaving a huge stock of domestic debt of about RF2 billion.

4. Inappropriate means of deficit Financing – our budget deficits are financed either through monetization (a fancy term for printing money!) or from external sources – mostly through borrowings. This has not only created a huge domestic debt (because MMA prints money and lends to Finance Ministry) but an increasingly burdensome external debt position. More worrying is the fact the government, in the recent years, has resorted increasingly to commercial borrowings as a means to finance budget deficits.

We are yet to know how the new government plans to finance the budget. With our stock of external borrowings reaching over a half of GDP coupled with the financial meltdown and the global economic downturn, it looks like the new government is left with few options. So, the big question now is how our new government is going to finance the costs of providing health insurance to 100,000 people and waiving off import duties on essential foods, drugs and diesel.

It’s the economy, stupid!

Some of you guys out there are going to ridicule at me, again - call me George Soros and other funny names, but that doesn’t change a thing about the fundamentals of our economy. I don’t claim to be George Soros and I of course don’t own Berkshire Hathaway. But this mediocre man with perhaps below very average intelligence also knows when all the telltale signs point to only one thing: without a substantial injection of hard currency into our economy, rufiyaa will have to be devalued. Our dollar crisis this year, is very much of an anomaly from the seasonal highs and lows that has become a characteristic feature of our economy. Here’s why.

1. Our gross reserves are at just a little over 2 months of imports - almost a 15 year low. As far as I can see there’s no way reserves are going to increase to US$380.8 million or 3.2 months of imports by the end of the year, as has been predicted by MMA (see 4.2 of Monthly Economic review, Oct 08).
2. The strong dollar coupled with the recession in EU region will substantially reduce our inflow of hard currency. So far, we haven’t seen this happening because of the 2-3 quarters’ lag that’s involved in the cycle. Last year we were saved from a devaluation by the unprecedented advance lease rentals we collected from the resort leases which increased our reserves to USD300million.
3. We are in the midst of hajj season, school holidays and bodu-eid. Our people are traveling overseas in large numbers (how they finance it would make another good blog post). Our hajj travelers, holiday makers and expat teachers are going to drain, within the next month or two, whatever little stock of hard currency we have within our banking system now.
4. With oil below USD50 now, the dollar isn’t going to fall anytime soon. Over the last five years, with greenback on the ventilator, we automatically offset any pressure on the Rufiyaa resulting from the expansionary policies of Gasim (kudos to Ali Hashim for trying to reign in the pressure, but this could be too little too late). We did the last devaluation under Mohamed Jaleel in July 2001. Ever since, the Euro has generally appreciated against the dollar thus making Maldives cheaper for our tourists from the EU region - but this is a thing of the past now.

Laila Ali, our new First Lady - how are we going to see her?

It’s a little too early to say the role our new first lady Laila Ali is going to play in our ‘aneh dhivehiraajje’. So far, I must say, she has done and outstanding job successfully staying out of the limelight – that’s in spite of the continuous barrage of criticisms and vituperative remarks (what’s the English equivalent of Auguraanu?) that were so much a part of her husband’s life throughout the last three months of the intense campaign period. I’m sure the young mother of two must have been so relieved. But now, as the new first lady of the country, she has been catapulted, albeit involuntarily, into public life, and I, for one person, expect her to assume an important role in serving her people alongside her husband. I have to admit I have never met or talked to Laila Ali, but the people I have talked to all say that she has the intelligence, wit, and of course, the looks (was President Mohamed Ameen ever married to Baarashu Ramla? ask your grandpa), to outshine all our former first ladies. So, the question that begs to be asked is, are we going to see her, in her public life, as someone like our ex-first ladies Nasreena or Naseema? Or are we going to see her as our answer to Jordan’s Queen Rania?

Nasreena, our first lady for the last 30 years, although seemingly introvert in character, is believed to have wielded great influence in the corridors of power. In public life, the seemingly unassuming, bambi-eyed first lady is known more through her association with SHE and the NGOs work in the health sector, particularly in Thalasemia and Women's Health.

The first lady that most of us knew during President Nasir’s govt was Naseema Mohamed. The soft-spoken, petite and beautiful lady is still in public service - long after President Nasir is gone. Although a nurse by training, she is known more for the work she has done in the area of linguistic and historical research. Mariyam Saeed, the senior wife of President Nasir, also left her mark quite successfully in the Maldivian literary scene as one of the most accomplished poets of her time.

I googled up for interesting first ladies and here’s my picks - among international scene and the Arab-Islamic world (for the simple reason that we group ourselves with them, mostly).

Hillary Clinton – obviously, one of the first that comes to mind - but I don’t know if the world now remembers her as an American first lady, Barrack Obama’s opponent in the recent democratic race, Senator Clinton or the lady who forced the most powerful man in the world to sleep in the garage in the aftermath of Lewinsky affair. She is powerful, elegant, confident and unyielding in all the different roles we saw her in. Looks like, Michelle Obama, as the US first lady in waiting, has a tough act to follow. (I conveniently forgot that primate W’s wife!)

Queen Rania of Jordan, counted by Forbes Magazine among the 100 most powerful women in the world is a rare combination of sheer beauty, intelligence and political power. Born to Palestinian parents and educated at American University in Cairo, she is known for her role in philanthropy, advocacy for women’s rights and in clarifying misconceptions about Islam.

Carla Bruni, the first First Lady to have nude pictures posted on the Internet who is said to have said she easily gets “bored with monogamy”, is arguably the sexiest of them all but she hasn’t so far been seen as too keen on assuming any of the traditional roles of first ladies.

Asma al-Assad of Syria is beautiful, quick-witted, and intelligent. Married in 2000, to Bashar al-Assad, she has worked and supported programs designed to improve rural development including capacity building of communities and promoting local culture and heritage.

Are we starting off on the wrong foot?

It’s only been two weeks since President’s special envoy Zaki talked about inviting Aung San Suu Kyi to the swearing-in ceremony of President Nasheed. Just yesterday our newspapers carried an article that said our government wants to democratize the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriyya under the ‘Brother Leader’ of the Great Al- Fatah Revolution!

President Nasheed, in his first interview to the international media after assuming office, said his government is planning to establish an investment fund with earnings from tourism, to buy land from another country, should rising sea levels threaten the existence of our country.

I’m not against promoting democracy, but to me, this rather neo-Reaganite championing of democracy seems a far too grandiose proclamation for a country of our size and resources. I wonder why our mighty neighbor India, in spite of being the world’s largest democracy, with its vast arsenal of hard power and formidable base of soft power, hasn’t dared to venture into such foreign policy adventures even at a regional level. I know it’s a little too early to be commenting on the policies of the new government. But if the above developments offer any clue to how our foreign policy is going to be shaped under our new government, it looks like Dr. Ahmed Shaheed and his team should be prepared for one hell of a crusade.

They are waiting …but President Nasheed isn’t Harry Houdini!

Mariyam is 34. Her husband, a heroin addict, has had intermittent interactions with her during his time away from the prison sentences to father 8 children from the marriage. She lives along with her 8 children, 4 siblings and mother, in two match box sized slum-like rooms. Her family has been living on the generosity of her distant relatives ever since her father died of heart failure a year ago.

Aishath, still a year short of 30, was married eight times to seven men. Their only remnant in her life is six children whose whereabouts today remain somewhat a mystery to her. I know she is not demented but the last time I heard of her she was in Guraidhoo - her mother has found a clever way of putting her under Govt ‘care’!

Rashid, 43 a Director General in the Government and father of 3 children isn’t the kind of person you would think could end up with a Bank of Maldives ‘lui loan’. He earns slightly over USD2,000 a month from his job and through rental income. But his regular ‘medico-sexual’ trips to Bangkok, weekend ‘masdhathuru’ and daily ‘coffees’ with his friends have now left him with a mounting credit card debt and an outstanding ‘lui loan’ and is now contemplating on running for Majlis!

Rashfa, a 26-year-old graduate in marketing doesn’t find anything wrong with credit card debt and borrowings from her parents. It’s a must for her. That’s because her monthly salary of Rf 6,000 doesn’t even cover half of the expenses she has to incur on her favourite DKNY fragrances and L'Oreal cosmetics and regular shopping sprees on bags and shoes.

Ahmed 23, is voluntarily unemployed for the last 8 months. Being a bright student he got good grades at school but has shied way from a job for his mother finances, from her two-bedroom rented apartment, his daily packet of Marboro and Lavazzas with his friends. A few months ago Dhiraagu disconnected his mother’s phone line after he accumulated a whopping Rf10,000 bill from his overseas calls to his girlfriend in Malaysia.

My brother, a hard working man employed at a private company is living with his school teacher wife, three lovely kids and their maid in a 10x8 sq ft room, at age 38. Not a single flat/goathi round from Hulhumale or Vilingili over the last 10 years have gone without an application from him and his wife.

In spite of former health Minister Ahmed Abdulla’s repeated calls, Shakeeba 27, from Sh. Narudhoo and her 3 children aged between 3-8 do not eat the occasional bunch of banana they get from the ‘keyo feeni’ in their backyard. The good loins from the tuna her cousin Adam brings home also do not form a part of their diet. Only the fish head, badaidhoo, kashifathi and other parts of the fish that has zero commercial value goes into their pot of garudhiya. The good bunch of banana and the loins, sent to Male on board a Kulhudhuffushi boat are the only means to buy the main staples.

I don’t know how many times Haleema was married and how many children she has had. Today, she is in her early 60s and living with her current husband and three generations of her 8 children in a 10x10 sq ft room which is her bedroom, bathroom, living room, kitchen - all in one.

These people aren't fictitious characters. They are true stories of real people (names changed) I know and have blogged about on earlier occasions. There are hundreds of more people out there whose stories aren’t very different from theirs. All of them have hopes and dreams. Expectations are sky high. President Nasheed has just been sworn in and I know he is no Harry Houdini but I just can’t help thinking about what he is going to come up with to meet the expectations from his people.

Obama, Ann Nixon Cooper, Nasheed and my grandmother

I don’t know if my grandmother Hiyaladaitha, just a year short of 100, living in an impoverished island in the north of Maldives, voted in the Presidential elections in Maldives like Barack Obama’s Ann Nixon Cooper did in Atlanta.

Hiyaladhaitha did not stand for the buses in Montgomery or the hoses in Birmingham, but she was there to witness a generation of fishermen eke out an existence when their fishing boats were torpedoed by the Japanese imperialists. She along with her family and friends endured the hardships of the ‘magoofaiy’ era and saw her island’s population decimated by cholera and chigella three times. She was there to see five generations of her children overcome a myriad of challenges and multiply to 72 today. She was there when a constitution was torn down, a president was brutally beaten to death by a mob and another president who witnessed the Independence of her country derided by state sponsored public protests.

Meanwhile unbeknownst to Hiyaladhaitha, as Barack Obama said in his victory speech in Illinois, a man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, and lot of other changes happened in the world. But in her small world of less than 800 people, little has changed. Those lucky few among her 72 offspring had long migrated in search of greener pastures.

Mohamed Nasheed, elected by her second, third and fourth generation children will take his oath as the fourth President of this small country, tomorrow. One thing Hiyaladhaitha, who after a century, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, unlike Ann Nixon Cooper, does not know is if her small country can change. And as Mohamed Nasheed prepares to take charge of the highest office in the country, this third generation son of Hiyaladhaitha, who migrated from that impoverished island 29 years ago as a child, is sitting thousands of miles away from where he was born thinking about how the new President is going to shape this small country for the generations to come.

Running mates and constitutional Voids? It’s the Economy, stupid!

Lehman Bros has filed for bankruptcy protection and Merrill Lynch had hastily agreed to sell itself to Bank of America Corp. AIG is on the verge of a meltdown. It’s not been long since Bear Sterns collapsed. Fannie and Freddie, dubbed too big to collapse were bailed out a few days ago. Oil, in spite of dropping over 50 percent from the record high July prices, is still hovering around $100.

I have often heard that Americans don’t think of what’s going on in the outside world because their country is simply too large. America is a world in itself. So is Maldives. The entire country is embroiled in debating on things like running mates, PhDs, human rights and constitutional voids! Our politicians and media seem to be blithely ignorant of the biggest events that shape our lives. It’s the economy, stupid!

Thank you President Gayoom…and Happy New Year to you too

I received my president’s customary New Year card. Just like the 36 odd thousand others in the government of Maldives I receive at least a half dozen of them every year. Every time I receive a card from him I take a few seconds to think about how bad an aesthetic sense he has before tossing it into my bin. I must tell my president that his photography obtrudes upon all my senses in a very unpleasant way.